Weekly Outlook

Market Commentary – March 2026

Market Commentary – March 2026

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE

Source: Bloomberg (Total Return in USD/Local Currency terms)

The equity market broadly corrected in March 2026 as escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict triggered a sharp spike in oil prices and a repricing of global inflation expectations. Concerns over potential supply disruptions, particularly through key transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, pushed crude prices materially higher and reinforced fears of renewed cost-push inflation. This in turn drove a hawkish reassessment of the global rate path, with markets increasingly pricing a prolonged higher-for-longer environment as central banks remain constrained in their ability to ease policy. Against this backdrop, the S&P (-5% MoM) recorded its weakest monthly performance since the 2022 bear market, reflecting broad-based de-risking and multiple compression as risk premia rose.

Both Value and Growth declined significantly, with the DJIA (-5.2% MoM) and NASDAQ (-4.7% MoM) falling in tandem. Unlike a typical rate-driven rotation where Growth underperforms, the selloff was largely macro-led and indiscriminate in nature. Elevated oil prices raised concerns over margin compression and weaker consumption, while the parallel rise in bond yields pressured equity valuations across the board. This suggested that positions unwinding and risk reductions dominated the outflows during the month, rather than a fundamental shift between style leadership.

Small Caps (-7.6% MoM) underperformed Large Caps (-6.3% MoM). Smaller companies generally face greater refinancing risks and have less pricing power to offset rising input costs, making them more vulnerable in a rising rate and inflationary environment. Emerging Market equities (13% MoM) experienced the steepest drawdowns, driven by a combination of capital outflows, currency weakness, and higher energy bills. The oil shock disproportionately impacts energy-importing economies, exacerbating external balances and weighing on investor sentiment.

In Europe, German equities (-10.3% MoM) underperformed the most, reflecting their structural exposure to energy-intensive industries and global trade. Rising energy costs and persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector compounded existing macro challenges, including soft external demand and fragile industrial activity. French equities (-8.8% MoM) remained pressured amid lingering political uncertainty following recent government instability, which continued to weigh on investor confidence and risk appetite. UK equities (-6.2% MoM) showed relative resilience, supported by their heavier weighting toward defensive sectors.

Closer to home, APAC equities declined sharply (-12.9% MoM) as the region remains highly sensitive to global trade dynamics and energy price shocks. Singapore (+2% MoM) stood out as the most resilient market, supported by its relatively benign inflation profile, stable macro outlook, and strong banking sector fundamentals, which benefit from a higher interest rate environment. China and Hong Kong (-7.5% / -6.6% MoM) also fared relatively better, underpinned by improving earnings momentum in selected sectors and ongoing policy support that helped cushion external headwinds. In contrast, South Korea (-18.8% MoM) and Japan (-12.7% MoM) were the worst-performing markets in the region, given their heavy exposure to cyclical exports, particularly semiconductors and technology hardware, which are more sensitive to global demand slowdowns and rising discount rates. Japan additionally faced pressure from higher import costs and a gradual shift in monetary policy expectations amid rising inflation linked to energy prices.

Source: Bloomberg (Total Return in USD terms)

Within the S&P 500, Energy (+10.4% MoM) was the only sector to post positive returns in March, driven by the sharp rise in oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Utilities (-3.2% MoM) and Financials (-3.6% MoM) also held up relatively better, reflecting a clear preference into defensive and income-generating segments as volatility picked up higher. The resilience in defensives was driven less by structural growth themes and more by capital preservation and earnings visibility amid rising macro uncertainty.

Conversely, Industrials (-8.4% MoM), Healthcare (-8.1% MoM), and Consumer Staples (-7.4% MoM) lagged the broader market. Industrials saw margins squeezed by surging energy and freight costs alongside high interest rates that dampened capital spending, while Healthcare struggled as regulatory uncertainty and rising medical costs outweighed its usual stability. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples succumbed to input cost inflation and shifting consumer habits, as the “higher-for-longer” rate environment reduced the appeal of these traditional defensive holdings.

Source: Bloomberg (Total Return in Local Currency terms)

Global REITs reported negative performance across all markets in March 2026 as the Middle East conflict triggered heavy institutional selling and renewed interest rate pressure. Thailand (-4.5% MoM), the U.S. (-5.7% MoM), Canada (-5.9% MoM), and Singapore (-6.77% MoM) proved more resilient than their peers. Surging oil prices reignited inflation fears, causing the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield to spike by 33 bps to 2.29%, which momentarily compressed the relative appeal of yield-sensitive assets.

Despite the monthly pullback, S-REITs continue to benefit from resilient fundamentals and broad-based sector strength, particularly in hospitality and industrial segments. The sector remains a compelling value play, trading at a fair 1x PB with a trailing yield spread of 2.6%, the second highest globally, as positive rental reversions in suburban retail and logistics help offset higher financing costs. The dip may be viewed as an attractive entry point for high-quality, dividend-paying assets.

EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK

Rates Backdrop and Market Sentiment:

Source: Bloomberg.

Market sentiment turned risk-off with implied market volatility surging in March. The VIX rose by 539 bps MoM, crossing both the Trailing 3M (~17%) and 1Y (~19%) averages. Conversely, the SKEW Index declined but remained near short-term support levels. This flattening suggests that while immediate volatility was being priced in, investors maintained significant hedges against further left-tail risk and potential black swan events

Treasury Yields spiked by 38-44 bps MoM while the Treasury Yield Spread has fallen slightly to 0.5%. This Bear-Flattening trend was primarily driven by the geopolitical energy shock and upside inflation surprises, which forced markets to aggressively price out 2026 rate cuts in favor of a ‘higher-for-longer’ stance. This shift signaled bearish sentiment for equities as rising discount rates and the risk of stagflation weighed on growth expectations. In the credit market, the IG-Treasury spread remained unchanged, but the 21-bps widening in the HY–IG spread indicates the same risk-off sentiment, rotating away from lower-tier credits that are more vulnerable to shifting monetary policy and slowing economic momentum.

Overall, the broad-based risk-on sentiment following the December rate cut has flipped into a more selective and cautious positioning as of March 2026. While volatility spiked and the bear-flattening of the yield curve replaced previous steepening, credit markets and equity rotations indicate a complex recalibration. Investors are now prioritizing quality and resilience in anticipation of the Fed’s hawkish pause and persistent geopolitical instability.

Macroeconomic Trends and Signals:

Source: Bloomberg.

Core Inflation slightly cooled by 10 bps MoM, aligning with its 3-month average. However, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) gauge remained sticky at 3.1% YoY, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, indicating that inflation has yet to return firmly within policy comfort levels. The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose by 40 bps MoM, pointing to lingering upstream price pressures and a still-heightened inflation environment. This persistent heat led the Fed to raise its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% during the March FOMC meeting.

On the growth front, global manufacturing momentum is accelerating MoM, with key markets like the US (PMI: 52.6) and the Eurozone (PMI: 51.4) firmly in expansionary territory. Singapore also sustained its recovery, with its manufacturing PMI at 50.5, marking an eighth consecutive month of expansion despite a slight easing from February. This suggests that although growth is losing some steam, the broader industrial cycle has not rolled over decisively. Taken together, the combination of sticky inflation metrics and moderating but still-expanding manufacturing activity is likely to reinforce a cautious central bank stance.

Beyond the Pivot: Capturing Quality Opportunities in a High-Sensitivity, Headline-Driven Regime

The constructive momentum observed at the start of 2026 faced a sharp recalibration in March as market sentiment turned decisively risk-off. This pivot was primarily triggered by a geopolitical energy shock that saw oil prices surge, reigniting stagflation fears and forcing a market repricing of the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative. The fixed income and credit space also point to the same sentiment as the market shifted into a bear-flattening regime with a growing quality bias.

Despite the broader market drawdown, the structural AI investment cycle remains a core pillar of the industrial landscape. Global manufacturing momentum continues to accelerate with key markets remaining in expansionary territory. Higher input and freight costs will tighten margins, but the broader industrial cycle has not rolled over. Capital expenditure tied to semiconductors, data centers, and power-grid upgrades continues to provide structural earnings visibility, though leadership has narrowed as investors rotate towards crisis hedges like Energy and the defensives.

As we move into the second quarter of 2026, a disciplined and selective approach is critical. While equity upside remains plausible, elevated valuations and policy uncertainty necessitate a stance of informed prudence. The combination of sticky inflation and steady manufacturing activity will likely reinforce a cautious hawkish pause from central banks. With the Middle East conflict remaining a volatile wildcard, markets are likely to exhibit high sensitivity to both positive and negative developments. However, historical precedents suggest that initial market overreactions to geopolitical shocks often create attractive entry points for long-term equity positions. Investors should prioritize a diversified balance across regions and styles, maintaining high awareness of rate risks while seeking out beneficiaries of the ongoing Asian tech infrastructure build-out that offer a more compelling yield spread in this highly reactive market environment.

FIXED INCOME UPDATE 

Source: Bloomberg; Returns are presented in USD terms

Source: Bloomberg; Returns are presented in USD terms

Bond markets endured a difficult March, with all major indices posting negative returns as yields rose sharply in response to the inflation shock stemming from the Iran war. The sell‑off was broad‑based, but the SGD Overall Index stood out as the worst performer in USD terms, down nearly 2% on the month. This marked a sharp reversal from its leadership earlier in the year, as the dual impact of higher global yields and a stronger USD created a double‑whammy for Singapore bonds. Even so, the SGD index remains one of the stronger performers on a YTD basis, underscoring the resilience of domestic credit fundamentals despite external headwinds.

Elsewhere, developed market indices also struggled. The US Treasury Bond Index and US Aggregate Bond Index both declined, reflecting the upward pressure on yields as investors repriced inflation risks. European bonds, which had staged a rebound earlier in the year, likewise gave back ground, with the Pan‑Euro Aggregate Index slipping into negative territory. Credit markets were not spared either, as US corporates and global aggregates posted losses, highlighting how tight spreads offered little cushion against the rate shock.

In contrast, the short‑duration space fared slightly better. While March’s performance was still negative, shorter‑dated indices such as the US 1–3 Year IG and High Yield benchmarks remain positive on a YTD basis. Their resilience reflects the lower sensitivity to duration risk in a rising yield environment, offering investors some protection against the broader sell‑off.

Geopolitical Shock: The Iran War and Bond Markets

March’s defining development was the escalation of the Iran war, which triggered a sharp inflation shock and sent global bond yields higher. Energy prices spiked, supply chain risks resurfaced, and investors quickly repriced inflation expectations. The result was a broad sell‑off across fixed income, with duration‑heavy benchmarks hit hardest.

The repricing of inflation expectations is particularly significant. Markets had entered 2026 anticipating rate cuts by mid‑year, but the war has upended that narrative. With energy costs rising and headline inflation likely to remain elevated, investors are now questioning whether the Fed can deliver any cuts at all. In fact, some are beginning to entertain the possibility of renewed rate hikes if inflation proves sticky. This shift drove yields higher across the curve as short‑dated maturities repriced to reflect policy risk, while longer‑dated bonds sold off on inflation fears and weaker demand for duration. The result was a flatter curve, signalling that markets are bracing for a higher‑for‑longer scenario with policy risk skewed toward tightening rather than easing.

The war also reinforced the USD’s safe‑haven appeal, compounding the pressure on non‑USD markets. For Singapore bonds, this created a double‑whammy: higher global yields and a stronger dollar eroded returns, turning the SGD index from YTD leader into March’s laggard. Emerging markets were similarly squeezed, as compressed spreads offered little cushion against the rate shock and currency volatility.

March’s developments underscore the importance of balancing short‑duration carry with selective duration exposure. In an environment where geopolitical shocks can rapidly reset inflation expectations and Fed policy trajectories, portfolios must remain resilient enough to capture carry, yet defensive enough to withstand renewed volatility in rates and currencies.

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This material is provided by Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (“PCM”) for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to invest in any of the exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) or the unit trust (“Products”) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. You should read the Prospectus and the accompanying Product Highlights Sheet (“PHS”) for key features, key risks and other important information of the Products and obtain advice from a financial adviser (“FA“) before making a commitment to invest in the Products. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a FA, you should assess whether the Products are suitable for you before proceeding to invest. A copy of the Prospectus and PHS are available from PCM, any of its Participating Dealers (“PDs“) for the ETF, or any of its authorised distributors for the unit trust managed by PCM.

An ETF is not like a typical unit trust as the units of the ETF (the “Units“) are to be listed and traded like any share on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”). Listing on the SGX-ST does not guarantee a liquid market for the Units which may be traded at prices above or below its NAV or may be suspended or delisted. Investors may buy or sell the Units on SGX-ST when it is listed. Investors cannot create or redeem Units directly with PCM and have no rights to request PCM to redeem or purchase their Units. Creation and redemption of Units are through PDs if investors are clients of the PDs, who have no obligation to agree to create or redeem Units on behalf of any investor and may impose terms and conditions in connection with such creation or redemption orders. Please refer to the Prospectus of the ETF for more details.

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With effect from 1st July 2014, this FATCA Notice (the “Notice”) forms part of the terms and conditions of our products and services (the “Terms and Conditions”) governing your relationship (“you”, “your”, “yours” referred to herein include joint-account holders and beneficiary holders of an entity who are a natural person) with Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd and its related corporations (collectively referred to herein as “PCM”, “us”, “we” or “our”) and should be read in conjunction with those Terms and Conditions, including those under our Personal Data Protection Notice.The existing terms and conditions of any contractual agreement entered into between PCM a nd you (the “Existing Terms and Conditions”) remain in full force and effect. In the event of any conflict or inconsistency between the provisions of this Notice and those of the Existing Terms and Conditions, the provisions of this Notice shall prevail.

We may from time to time update the Terms and Conditions listed here to ensure their consistency with our future developments,industry trends and/or any changes in legal or regulatory requirements. Such updates will be published at http://www.phillipfunds.com/ .

On March 18, 2010, the United States of America’s (“U.S.”) Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act of 2010 (Pub.L.111-147H.R.2847)) (the “Act”) was enacted into law. Section 501(a) of the Act added a new chapter 4 (sections 1471-1474) to Subtitle A of the U.S.’s Internal Revenue Code (Code).Chapter 4 expands the information reporting requirements imposed on foreign financial institutions (as defined in section 1471(d)(4)) (FFIs) with respect to certain U.S. accounts (as defined in section 1471(d)(1)) of specified U.S. person, and imposes withholding, documentation, and reporting requirements with respect to certain payments made to certain foreign entities.

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“FATCA” or “Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act” means Chapter 4 (sections 1471 to 1474) to Subtitle A of the U.S.Internal Revenue Code.

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PERSONAL DATA PROTECTION NOTICE

With effect from 1st July 2014, this Personal Data Protection Notice (the “Notice”) forms part of the terms and conditions of our products and services (the “Terms and Conditions”) governing your relationship (“you”, “your”, “yours” referred to herein include joint-account holders and beneficiary holders of an entity who are a natural person) with Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd and its related corporations (collectively referred to herein as “PCM”, “us”, “we” or “our”). Without prejudice to the existing terms and conditions of any contractual agreement entered into between PCM and you (the “Existing Terms and Conditions”), which remain in full force and effect, this Notice shall be read in conjunction with the Existing Terms and Conditions. In the event of any conflict or inconsistency between the provisions of this Notice and those of the Existing Terms and Conditions, the provisions of this Notice shall prevail.

We are required under the Personal Data Protection Act (“PDPA”) to put in place the necessary arrangements to protect personal data and comply with the PDPA. Personal data includes any data and information, whether true or not, about an individual (a natural person) who can be identified from that data or information, such as your name, NRIC, passport or other identification number, telephone numbers, address, email address and any other information relating to individuals which you or your authorized representative have provided to us or we are likely to have access to (“Personal Data”).

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4. You represent and warrant that your Personal Data provided to us is accurate and complete for us to make a decision that affects you or to disclose your Personal Data to the above-mentioned Relevant Persons on a need-to-know basis. Where applicable, when you provided Personal Data relating to another individual (e.g. your dependent, spouse, children and/or parents) to us, you represent and warrant that such Personal Data is accurate and complete and the consent of that individual has been obtained for the collection, use and disclosure of his/her Personal Data in accordance with the provisions listed in this Notice.

5. We will retain your Personal Data to the extent that one or more of the Purposes for which your Personal Data was collected, used and/or disclosed is/are still valid and for legal, regulatory reporting or regulatory investigations purposes for which retention may be necessary.

6. PCM may terminate any contractual relationship which you may have with us, if any information provided to us is insufficient, misleading or erroneous or if any information that is required to be disclosed to any regulatory authority for compliance with any law or regulation is not provided by you.

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8. You may withdraw your consent to any use or disclosure of your Personal Data for any or all of the Purposes as set out in this Notice by giving written notice to us. If you withdraw your consent(s), depending on the nature of your request, we may not be in a position to continue to provide our products or services to you or administer any contractual relationship in place. Such withdrawal may be considered a termination by you of any agreement you may have with us. Where there is any breach of your contractual obligations or undertakings, PCM’s legal rights and remedies are expressly reserved in such event.

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The value of the units and the income accruing to the units may fall or rise. You should read the Prospectus and the accompanying Product Highlights Sheet (“PHS”) for disclosure of key features, key risks and other important information of the ETF and obtain advice from a financial adviser (“FA”) before making a commitment to invest in ETF. A copy of the Prospectus and PHS are available from PCM or any of its PDs.

The ETF is not like a typical unit trust as it is intended for the units of the ETF (the “Units”) to be listed and traded like any share on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”). Listing on the SGX-ST does not guarantee a liquid market for the Units which may be traded at prices above or below its net asset value (“NAV”) or may be suspended or delisted. Investors may buy or sell the Units on SGX-ST when it is listed. Investors cannot create or redeem Units directly with PCM and have no rights to request PCM to redeem or purchase their Units. Creation and redemption of Units can be done through PDs if investors are clients of the PDs, who have no obligation to agree to create or redeem Units on behalf of any investor and may impose terms and conditions in connection with such creation or redemption orders. Please refer to the Prospectus for more details.

The regular dividend distributions, either out of income and/or capital, calculated on the assumption that all dividends/distributions are reinvested after all charges, are not guaranteed and subject to PCM’s discretion. Such dividend distributions will reduce the available capital for reinvestment and may result in an immediate decrease in the NAV of the ETF. Past payout yields (rates) and payments do not represent future payout yields (rates) and payments. Please refer to <www.phillipfunds.com> for more information in relation to the dividend distributions.

Any use of financial derivative instruments will be for hedging and/or for efficient portfolio management. PCM reserves the discretion to determine if currency exposure should be hedged actively, passively or not at all, in the best interest of the ETF.

The information does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal or investment advice.

Member companies of PhillipCapital, including PCM, their directors, officers, associates, agents, affiliates and/or employees may own or have positions in the investments mentioned herein or related thereto.

This information herein are not for any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or availability for use would contravene any applicable law or regulation or would subject PCM to any registration or licensing requirement in such jurisdiction or country. The ETF is not offered to U.S. Persons.

The information provided herein is based on certain information, conditions and/or assumptions available as at the date of this publication that may be obtained, provided or compiled from public and/or third party sources which PCM has no reason to believe are unreliable; and may contain optimistic statements/opinions/views regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. Any opinion or view herein is an expression of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. PCM makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate, complete, verified or should be relied upon as such. You must make your own financial assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information in this material.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

 

Timeliness, accuracy and completeness of information

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Copyright 

PhillipCapital and/or its member companies reserve all copyright and intellectual property rights to the services, content, information and data on the Website. The contents in the Website are protected by copyright and no part or parts hereof may be modified, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted (in any form or by any means), copied, distributed, published, displayed, broadcasted, hyperlinked, used for creating derivative works or used in any other way for commercial or public purposes without the prior written consent of PhillipCapital and/or its member companies.

 

No Warranties 

While every care has been taken in preparing the contents contained in the Website, such contents are provided to you “as is” and “as available” without warranty of any kind either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a particular purpose or freedom from computer virus is given in conjunction with such contents. Member companies of PhillipCapital, their directors, officers, associates, agents and affiliates make no representations, endorsements or warranties of any kind about the services, content, information and/or data contained in the Website.

 

Separate Contracts 

The provision of any service or products provided by PhillipCapital and/or its member companies through the Website shall be expressly subject to the particular terms and conditions as contained in the contract for the supply of such service or product. Any warranties or representations made in relation to the provision of such service or product are as made in the contract only and PhillipCapital and/or its member companies make no separate warranty or representation through the Website or through these general terms of use.

 

Exclusion of Liability and Indemnity 

In no event shall PhillipCapital and/or its member companies be liable to you for any loss, damage, costs, charges and/or expenses of whatsoever nature and howsoever arising including legal fees on a full indemnity basis, cost of funding and loss or cost incurred by you as a result of or in connection with:

  1. any access, use or the inability to access or use this website, use of or reliance on the contents of this website;
  2. any transaction performed on any web page in the Website;
  3. any loss or abuse or unauthorized disclosure of information, including customer information;
  4. any system, server or connection failure, error, omission, interruption, interception, delay in operation or transmission, or computer virus;
  5. any use of or access to any websites linked to the Website;
  6. any service, product, information, data, software or other materials obtained from this Website or from any other websites linked to this Website;
  7. breach or violation of any third party rights, including but not limited to the violation of any proprietary or intellectual property rights or the enforcement of any of these general terms of use.

 

Governing Law 

These general terms of use shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the Republic of Singapore and all parties hereby agree to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of the Republic of Singapore. Products and services referred to in this website are offered only in jurisdictions where and when they may be lawfully offered by PhillipCapital and/or its member companies. The contents in the Website are not intended for use by persons located in or resident in jurisdictions that restrict the distribution of such materials by us. Persons accessing these pages are required to inform themselves about and observe any relevant restrictions. The terms and conditions governing the use of the Website of each member company of PhillipCapital may differ and you should consult and carefully read the applicable terms and conditions before using the website.

This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.