Skip to main content
Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook 27 February 2023 – 05 March 2023

Weekly Commentary: 27 February 2023 – 05 March 2023

The S&P 500 Index suffered its worst weekly loss since early December. The index had surrendered roughly 35% of the rally that began in October but remained up 3.4% year-to-date. The global bond market rally since the start of the year has fizzled out as mounting signs of persistent inflation force investors to reverse their views on the likely path of interest rate rises however the rally has dissipated after a scorching US labour market report earlier this month. At the start of the year, people were angling for an end to the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks would end their aggressive campaign of monetary policy tightening but stronger economic activity and slower progress on inflation than previously expected could keep the Fed raising rates longer than anticipated before the recent reports. In the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the officials expect to keep raising rates this year. Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the US rose at a 2.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, the Commerce Department said Thursday, down from a previous estimate of 2.9% growth, and slower than the third quarter’s 3.2% growth. Elevated interest rates have not deterred consumers and employers, the University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer expectations in February was revised higher to its best level in over a year, sales of new single-family homes also reached their highest level since March 2022.

Stock returns were down over the last week as observed across the following 3 indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-2.97%), S&P 500 Index (-2.31%), and NASDAQ Composite Index (-3.31%). Most of the major key market indices were in negative territory last week. 3 notable S&P 500 sectors registered losses this week – Consumer Discretionary (-4.43%), Real Estate (-3.78%), and Communication Services (-4.37%) Main outperformers for the week were from subsectors such as Consumer Discretionary (+1.66%) only. For 2022 as a whole, index returns were negative for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-8.78%), S&P 500 (-19.44%), and the NASDAQ Composite (-33.10%).

The yield-curve remains inverted as the 10Y-2Y US Treasury spread widened 7bps to -0.87%, driven by U.S 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising 18bps to 4.80% and 11 bps to 3.93% respectively. Market sentiment also became more risk-off as the U.S. High Yield (HY) – Investment Grade (IG) credit spread tightened 9bps to 2.96% while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has jumped 165bps to 21.67%.

The global REIT markets returns were mixed over the past trading week. Closer to home, the iEdge S-REIT Index (+0.46%) and all of its subsectors generated mixed weekly returns. Healthcare (+1.24%), Industrial (+1.23%), and Retail (+0.59%) were the positive gainers for the last week whereas, Hotel & Resort (-1.81%), Diversified (-1.76%) and Office (-1.51%) was the sectors that dipped. REITs generally have been affected by decreasing yield spread as interest rates surged and investors price in the possibility of reduced distributions stemming from higher financing costs. However, we do expect inflows to return to the sector given the existing attractive valuations on offer and resilience offered by the REIT asset class in light of the waning global growth outlook.

Important Information

This material is provided by Phillip Capital Management (S) Ltd (“PCM”) for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to invest in any of the exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) or the unit trust (“Products”) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. You should read the Prospectus and the accompanying Product Highlights Sheet (“PHS”) for key features, key risks and other important information of the Products and obtain advice from a financial adviser (“FA“) before making a commitment to invest in the Products. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a FA, you should assess whether the Products are suitable for you before proceeding to invest. A copy of the Prospectus and PHS are available from PCM, any of its Participating Dealers (“PDs“) for the ETF, or any of its authorised distributors for the unit trust managed by PCM.

An ETF is not like a typical unit trust as the units of the ETF (the “Units“) are to be listed and traded like any share on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”). Listing on the SGX-ST does not guarantee a liquid market for the Units which may be traded at prices above or below its NAV or may be suspended or delisted. Investors may buy or sell the Units on SGX-ST when it is listed. Investors cannot create or redeem Units directly with PCM and have no rights to request PCM to redeem or purchase their Units. Creation and redemption of Units are through PDs if investors are clients of the PDs, who have no obligation to agree to create or redeem Units on behalf of any investor and may impose terms and conditions in connection with such creation or redemption orders. Please refer to the Prospectus of the ETF for more details.

Investments are subject to investment risks including the possible loss of the principal amount invested, and are not obligations of, deposits in, guaranteed or insured by PCM or any of its subsidiaries, associates, affiliates or PDs. The value of the units and the income accruing to the units may fall or rise. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the Products. There can be no assurance that investment objectives will be achieved. Any use of financial derivative instruments will be for hedging and/or for efficient portfolio management. PCM reserves the discretion to determine if currency exposure should be hedged actively, passively or not at all, in the best interest of the Products. The regular dividend distributions, out of either income and/or capital, are not guaranteed and subject to PCM’s discretion. Past payout yields and payments do not represent future payout yields and payments. Such dividend distributions will reduce the available capital for reinvestment and may result in an immediate decrease in the net asset value (“NAV”) of the Products. Please refer to <www.phillipfunds.com> for more information in relation to the dividend distributions.

The information provided herein may be obtained or compiled from public and/or third party sources that PCM has no reason to believe are unreliable. Any opinion or view herein is an expression of belief of the individual author or the indicated source (as applicable) only. PCM makes no representation or warranty that such information is accurate, complete, verified or should be relied upon as such. The information does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal or investment advice.

The information herein are not for any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or availability for use would contravene any applicable law or regulation or would subject PCM to any registration or licensing requirement in such jurisdiction or country. The Products is not offered to U.S. Persons. PhillipCapital Group of Companies, including PCM, their affiliates and/or their officers, directors and/or employees may own or have positions in the Products. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Leave a Reply