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Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook 04 Dec 2023 – 10 Dec 2023

Weekly Commentary: 04 Dec 2023 – 10 Dec 2023

Major US equity benchmarks were positive for the past week. Inflation seems to be abating as Eurozone’s inflation eased to 2.4% down from 2.9% the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, slowed to 3.6%, down from 4.2% the previous month. There are some expectations that they will start cutting rates next year as inflation eases further. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell had also signalled that the Fed are likely done raising rates, however with caution that they have achieved sufficiently restrictive stance. Prices for long-lasting items have fallen on a yoy basis for five straight months, and in October 2022, prices was down 2.6% from their peak in Sep 2022. As they continue to ease further, there are expectations that the FED will start to cut rates as early as next year.

On the other side, India continues to outperform other major economies. 3rd quarter GDP rose 7.6% Y-o-Y, slightly lower than the 7.8% expansion recorded the previous quarter. Growth performance was attributed to domestic demand, statement investment and buoyant consumer sentiment.  It is slated to remain one of the world’s fastest growing major economies as credit growth, electricity consumption and mobility indicators all paint a bright future.

Stock returns were negative over the week as observed across the following 3 indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.60%), S&P 500 Index (+0.83%), NASDAQ Composite Index (+0.41%). Other notable key market indices that generated positive returns consist of MSCI AC ASEAN Index (+0.56%) & MSCI World (+0.89%). All S&P 500 sectors registered positive returns last week with notable sectors – Industrials (+2.20%), Real Estate (+4.67%) and Materials (+2.78%) falling more than the rest of the sector. For 2022, index returns were negative for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-8.78%), S&P 500 (-19.44%) and the NASDAQ Composite (-33.10%).

The yield-curve remains inverted as the 10Y-2Y US Treasury spread widened for the week of -0.35%. driven by U.S 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields falling 35 bps to 4.60% and falling 22 bps to 4.24% respectively. Market sentiment also became more risk-on as the U.S. High Yield (HY) – Investment Grade (IG) credit spread widened 3 bps to 2.69% while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 17 bps to 12.63%.

The global REITs market’s return were mostly in the red across the numerous benchmarks. FTSE EPRA Nareit Germany Index (+4.40%) and FTSE EPRA Nareit Canada Index (+3.67%) are the notable REITs that generated positive returns over the past week. Closer to home, the iEdge S-REIT Index (-0.78%) and all of its subsectors generated negative weekly returns with Data Center REITs (+1.05%) and Diversified REITs (+1.22%), the notable sector that outperformed the rest last week.  REITs generally have been affected by decreasing yield spread as interest rates surged and investors price in the possibility of reduced distributions stemming from higher financing costs. However, we do expect inflows to return to the sector given the existing attractive valuations on offer and resilience offered by the REIT asset class in light of the waning global growth outlook.

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